Apex inventory forecasting
Know the sell-out date before the shelf does.
Every item in your catalog carries a predicted sell-out date, worked out each day from what you have shipped and invoiced. Under it, in red when it is close, is the date you need to reorder by, and beside it the quantity to order. A purchase already on its way is counted in. It is an estimate from your own history, and it says so.
The Items table
Three dates and a quantity on every item.
The sell-out date sits in the Items table with the reorder-by date under it. When a purchase is already on its way, the row says Reorder in progress and shows the further date that purchase runs out.
- Sell-out
- The day the item is predicted to run out at its current rate of sale.
- Reorder by
- The sell-out date less the item's lead time, so the reorder arrives in time.
- Reorder quantity
- Enough to bring stock back to the days on hand you keep, rounded up.
How it is worked out
The parts of a prediction, each one visible.
An estimate from your own records, recalculated every day. A new company's first predictions are thin: seasonality needs history, and they firm up as it builds.
- What it predicts from
- Shipped sales and invoices. A shipment and its linked invoice count once; unlinked ones count separately. Seasonality is used, with all the history there is.
- Lead time
- Measured from the item's own receipts and updated weekly.
- Days on hand
- One field per item, entered by you or kept up to date by its own setting. Reordering always uses its current value.
- Rounding
- Reorder quantities always round up.
- On the way
- Open purchases are counted in. If one does not cover the need, the item shows the further date it runs out.
The stock behind it
Four numbers, kept apart so none is guessed.
On hand
What is in the warehouse, from receipts, production and shipments.
Allocated
What confirmed orders have claimed, from the moment each order is confirmed.
Available
Calculated: on hand less allocated. It is the number new orders draw on.
Shipped
What has left, which is where the sell-out date learns its rate of sale.
Why dates
A min and max in a spreadsheet, or a date on every item.
| Min/max spreadsheet | Apex | |
|---|---|---|
| When to order | When stock crosses a number set last year | A reorder-by date from the current rate of sale and the measured lead time |
| How much | Up to the max | Back to your days on hand, rounded up |
| Seasonality | Adjusted by hand, if at all | Used, from your own history |
| Purchases on the way | Remembered by the buyer | Counted in, with Reorder in progress on the row |
| Freshness | As of the last update | Recalculated every day |
FAQ
Inventory forecasting, run end to end.
How is the sell-out date predicted?
Each day, Apex works out the item's rate of sale from what you have shipped and invoiced, with seasonality from your own history, and projects when the stock available today runs out. A shipment and its linked invoice count once. It is an estimate, not a forecast of record, and a new company's first predictions are thin until there is history to learn from.
How is the reorder-by date set?
It is the sell-out date less the item's lead time: the time it takes the item to arrive once ordered. Lead time is measured from the item's own receipts and updated weekly, so the date reflects how your suppliers actually deliver.
How is the reorder quantity worked out?
It is the quantity that brings stock back to the item's days on hand, often 30, 60 or 90 days depending on how long it takes to replenish, at the predicted rate of sale. Days on hand is one field per item, entered by you or kept up to date by its own setting, and reordering always uses its current value. Quantities round up.
What happens when a purchase is already on its way?
It is counted in. The row shows Reorder in progress instead of a reorder-by date, and if that purchase does not cover the need, it shows the further date the item runs out after it arrives, so a second purchase is planned rather than discovered.
How are on hand, allocated and available calculated?
On hand comes from receipts, production and shipments. Allocated is what confirmed orders have claimed. Available is calculated as on hand less allocated, and it is the number the predictions and new orders work from.
Does it work without an ERP?
Yes. Inventory runs in Apex on its own, from your orders, receipts and shipments, or with your ERP as the record for stock when one is connected.
Related in Apex
- Sales ordersCustomer POs to sales orders, in the customer's own units, drop-ship included.View
- Production planningWork orders on production lanes, step by step, with headcount and equipment.View
- Price listsOne default list, customer lists, and ZIP prices only where needed.View
- DistributionPrice lists, ZIP prices, rebates, drop-ship and reorder dates on every order.View
See inventory forecasting work on your own orders.
Thirty minutes on one workflow, with your own quotes, orders or invoices. You leave with a view of where Apex fits, and an honest answer if the sequencing is wrong and you should fix something else first.
Your pricing, approval and billing rules are your advantage, and they stay yours. Apex is configured to the way you sell, make and bill. You are not handing over a playbook or fitting into a template.